Buyout Seasonal Weighting & Compensation Insights

How the 7pm seasonal weighted-average that drives vendor compensation is built — event month at full weight (1.0), each adjacent shoulder month at 0.50 (the live setting), with July & August dropped as shoulders unless the event lands in them. Below: a static snapshot of the live formula against real Churchill sales, then an interactive sandbox.

Real Churchill snapshot · 7pm · 2025
Payout vs. same-weekday last year
How often the live 7pm buyout payout exceeds what the tenant actually averaged at 7pm on that weekday a year earlier.
61% of operating days
640 of 1,054 tenant-days · 0.50 shoulders + Jul/Aug rule. Shoulder weight 0.50 vs 0.75 lands at 61% either way; the illustrative model predicted 58%.
By tenant — % of 2025 operating days overpaid
Payout > actual same-weekday-last-year, at 7pm.
The Bar71%
Scookie Bar60%
Loco Style60%
Stoop Kid59%
Neighbor Mkt54%
Freak Bros49%
The Bar — real 7pm sales by month (2025)
Actual $/hr at 7pm. Peak March ($1,103), trough August ($575) — the Phoenix shape, from real data.
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
The live formula
Current production settings (all three hubs).
Event month weight1.0
Shoulder month weight0.50
July / August shouldersdropped*
Pre-event runway1 hr
Teardown30 min
*unless the event itself lands in July or August.

Snapshot figures are static (computed 2026-06-27 from real Churchill 7pm data, all source = real POS). “Actual” = each tenant’s 2025 month + weekday average at 7pm, weighted by operating-days — not literal single dates, and H1 reflects year-over-year growth as well as seasonality. Internal reference; not shown to tenants.

Interactive sandbox — try your own numbers

Scenario

Shoulder-month weight (event month stays 1.0)

Avg $ for that hour, by month

Auto-filled from the seasonal curve when you change the event month. Edit any value, or reset.

Annual sales shape — $/hr by month

Representative Phoenix venue year: busy Nov–Apr, dead Jul–Aug. The 3 highlighted bars are the event month (gold) and its two shoulders (blue / striped-red if excluded).

Weighted blend

event month · weight 1.0 shoulder · weight 0.75 excluded
$0

Summary